According to a study, cutting carbon emissions can stop 4,000 to 6,000 child deaths annually in Africa from heat-related causes. By 2049, as compared to 2005–2014, it is expected that heat-related infant mortality across the continent would have doubled owing to rising emissions.
A group of international experts from the University of Leeds and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine collaborated to perform the study (LSHTM).
According to the study, heat-related infant mortality may be avoided by keeping temperature increases to the 1.5°C limits set forth in the Paris Agreement until 2050.
The effect of climate change on yearly child fatalities from heat-related causes was also assessed for the current (1995–2020) and future (2050–2050) time periods.
Under low, medium, and high emission scenarios, a comparative risk assessment was done to predict the number of child fatalities attributable to heat.
Child mortality from heat-related causes might quadruple by 2049 under the high-emission scenario, when carbon emissions were not lowered, as compared to 2005–2014. By 2049, there may be 38,000 child fatalities annually.
Africa might save 4,000–6,000 heat-related child fatalities per year under the low-emission scenario. For this to be accomplished and to stay within the parameters of the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming to 1.5°C, rapid reductions in carbon emissions across all sectors are necessary.
Even in the medium-emission scenario, which mixes aspects of the low and high scenarios, 2,000–3,000 fatalities would be avoided annually.
The report emphasizes the requirement for immediate climate change adaptation and mitigation actions that are child health-focused.
Salient Insights from Research
On the correlation between temperature and mortality among children in African nations, there is a dearth of epidemiologic data. To reflect the upper and lower ranges of heat-related death tolls throughout the continent, the researchers analyzed earlier data in Ghana and Kenya.
Because of uncertainty in the socio-economic estimates, the researchers did not project heat-related child death beyond 2050.
According to a 20-year research, more than five million individuals worldwide pass away on average each year as a result of severe temperatures. Of them, 4.6 million deaths per year on average were caused by excessive cold, and 0.48 million by extreme heat.
Another study found that between 1991 and 2018, human global warming was responsible for more than a third (37%) of all heat-related fatalities worldwide. In Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, Vietnam, and Chile, the percentage of heat-related mortality linked to global warming exceeded 40%.
The study’s shortcomings, which include its dependence on heat-mortality connections from prior studies that only permitted the usage of Ghana and Kenya, were acknowledged by the researchers.
Latitude, altitude, socioeconomic variables like wealth disparity, and characteristics linked to the built environment, such as the prevalence of air conditioning use, have all been found to have different effects on population-specific temperature mortality associations.
The report suggested greater research to learn how excessive heat affects children’s health, what actions may manage and minimize the effects of heat on vulnerable groups, and how to prevent the needless deaths of thousands of children.